Thought this might be an interesting comparison.

Grok

How long did it take for Reagan to recover from the Carter economy in terms of inflation, interest rates, gas prices, stock market and other factors?

The U.S. economy Reagan inherited in January 1981 was still in the late-1970s stagflation mess: double-digit inflation, very high interest rates, a recent oil shock, a short 1980 recession, and a stock market that had gone nowhere for years. Recovery was not immediate. The first 22 months were a deep recession caused mainly by the Federal Reserve’s tight-money campaign to break inflation. After that, most indicators improved at different speeds.

Inflation

Annual CPI inflation:

• 1979: 11.3%
• 1980: 13.5% (peak year; monthly YoY peaked near 14.8% in spring 1980)
• 1981: 10.3%
• 1982: 6.1%
• 1983: 3.2%

By late 1982–1983 inflation had fallen into the 3–4% range that then prevailed for the rest of the decade (with a brief dip to 1.9% in 1986). That is roughly 2 years from inauguration to “inflation is no longer the crisis.” The Fed under Paul Volcker (appointed by Carter in 1979) did most of the work by keeping rates extremely high; Reagan publicly backed the policy instead of pressing for an early easing.

Interest rates

Federal-funds annual averages ran about 13.4% in 1980 and 16.4% in 1981. The prime rate hit the low 20s; 30-year mortgages peaked near 18%. Rates began falling in earnest in the second half of 1982 as inflation expectations broke and the recession deepened. By 1986 the funds rate was in the mid-6% range and mortgage rates were around 10%. Meaningful relief for borrowers took about 1½–3 years, with further declines later in the decade.

Gasoline prices

Nominal regular-gas averages:

• 1978: ~$0.63–0.67
• 1980: ~$1.22–1.25
• 1981: ~$1.31–1.38 (peak)
• 1982–85: gradual decline into the low $1.20s
• 1986: sharp drop to ~$0.86–0.93 after the oil glut

Prices peaked in Reagan’s first year and then fell. The big consumer-friendly drop came in 1986—about five years after he took office—because of a global oil-supply surge, not just U.S. policy. Inflation-adjusted prices in 1981 were among the highest of the postwar era until then.

Stock market

The Dow was roughly 950–970 around inauguration day and finished 1980 at 964. It then fell, bottoming at 777 on August 12, 1982. From that low a long bull market began. By January 1989 the Dow was around 2,235 (year-end 1988 close 2,169). That is a gain of roughly 130–150% over the full two terms, but the turn came 19 months into the presidency. Black Monday (October 19, 1987) produced a 22.6% one-day drop; the market recovered the lost ground within a couple of years.

Unemployment, GDP, and the labor market

Unemployment was already 7.5% when Reagan took office. It rose to a postwar peak of 10.8% in late 1982. It then fell steadily:

• 1984: 7.5%
• 1986: 7.0%
• 1988: 5.5%
• 1989: 5.3%

Getting back to the late-Carter low of ~5.8% took about six years. Real GDP contracted in 1980 and again in 1982 (−1.8%). The 1981–82 recession officially ran July 1981–November 1982 (16 months). From the November 1982 trough the economy expanded for 92 months until July 1990—one of the longest peacetime expansions on record. Growth was especially strong in 1983–84 (4.6% then 7.2%).

Other common measures

The “misery index” (inflation + unemployment) peaked near 22 in mid-1980 under Carter. It was still about 19 when Reagan was sworn in and had fallen to the 9–10 range by the end of his second term. Federal deficits and the national debt rose sharply because of the 1981 tax cuts plus higher defense spending and the recession’s effect on revenues. Energy-price volatility faded after the mid-1980s oil collapse.

Bottom line on timing

• Inflation “conquered”: ~2 years
• Interest-rate relief: ~1½–3 years
• Stock-market turn: 19 months
• Recession over / expansion begins: 22 months
• Unemployment back to late-1970s levels: ~6 years
• Cheap gasoline (the 1986 collapse): ~5 years

The painful part was front-loaded. Once inflation expectations broke and the 1981–82 recession ended, the rest of the 1980s looked like a conventional recovery plus a multi-year bull market. How much of that was Reagan’s fiscal and regulatory policies versus Volcker’s monetary policy versus the 1986 oil-price collapse is still debated; all three mattered.

[plus - The House stayed Democratic for Reagan’s entire presidency. The Senate did not. Republicans won the Senate in 1980 and held it through 1986. Democrats recaptured the Senate in the 1986 midterms and controlled it for the last two years of his second term]